Forget the prediction, focus on the signals

rlopezvazquez
Jun 20, 2024
2 min read

Futures thinking invites us to engage in deep reflection on complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals with broader patterns, the past with the present and the future.

But what is a signal?

A sign of change is defined as a concrete way of "touching" the future.

They are clues, clues that alert us that things may become different....

They are the basis to start thinking about futures and designing scenarios: specific examples of the future in the present.

🌱 They are the seed of probable change. It is still underground, but it has the capacity to sprout outwards and grow...

Signs are sometimes not easy to define, but you know you have one when you see it.

💡 They possess an intrinsic strength that distinguishes them from the noise. They contain a finding (or "Insight") within them.

📈 When many are gathered around the same force, watch out, because we have a trend and this will draw a clear direction of change.

🏄‍♀️ To find them and differentiate them from the noise, it is necessary to train a curious, reflexive, flexible, empathetic and strategic look.

Here are the keys to recognising a real sign of change.

You need to answer these four questions:

What kind of change does this signal represent? Can I identify "from what to what" it leads us?
What is the driving force? Can I identify the underlying motivation?
What might be different in 10 years' time? What future scenarios does it inspire?
Is it a desirable future or is it not? What are the lights and shadows?

Conclusion: Very much along the lines of "don't think of solutions, they will come by themselves when you understand the problem", but for the future. 🚀